TORONTO, December 5, 2025: Canadian families could spend nearly 1,000 Canadian dollars more on groceries next year as food prices continue to rise, according to the latest Canada’s Food Price Report 2026. The study, released by Dalhousie University and its research partners, forecasts an overall increase of between 4 and 6 percent in food prices over the next 12 months. The report estimates that a typical family of four will spend about C$17,571.79 on groceries in 2026, up by roughly C$994.63 compared with this year.
The findings mark the continuation of a trend that has seen food costs climb approximately 27 percent nationwide over the past five years, placing further strain on household budgets amid broader economic uncertainty. Food inflation, which surged following the pandemic and supply-chain disruptions, shows little sign of easing. The 2026 report attributes the projected increases to a combination of global and domestic pressures, including climate-related challenges, energy costs, and currency fluctuations affecting imported goods. Labor shortages and logistical expenses are also cited as contributing factors to the sustained rise in retail food prices.
Among the categories expected to experience the sharpest increases, meat is forecast to climb by between 5 and 7 percent. Analysts point to tighter livestock supplies following drought conditions in key cattle-producing regions as one of the key drivers of higher beef prices. Other categories such as restaurant meals and prepared foods are also expected to cost more, reflecting both inflationary trends and elevated operational expenses within the food service sector. By contrast, the report indicates that prices for dairy, bakery products, and fresh produce may stabilize or rise at a slower pace compared with previous years.
Meat prices expected to rise fastest among all food groups
However, the overall basket of goods is still projected to become more expensive for consumers nationwide, keeping grocery affordability among the most pressing financial concerns for Canadian households heading into 2026. The study, now in its 16th year, compiles data from multiple Canadian universities and research institutions, including the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia. It provides an annual benchmark for forecasting food price movements across the country and serves as a key reference for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers monitoring the cost of living.
According to the report’s lead author, Sylvain Charlebois of Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, the combination of persistent inflation, shifting trade conditions, and environmental volatility continues to shape Canada’s food economy. While some moderating effects could emerge from improved supply-chain stability and easing interest rates, the data indicate that food affordability will remain a major concern for Canadians throughout the coming year. The report’s projections follow a year of mixed inflation trends in Canada, where overall price growth has slowed but food costs have remained stubbornly high.
Inflation outpaces wages, tightening household food budgets
Statistics Canada’s most recent data show grocery inflation outpacing headline inflation for much of 2025, driven by high input costs and global market volatility. For many families, the predicted increase translates into ongoing adjustments in food purchasing habits, with consumers continuing to prioritize discounts, bulk buying, and substitution toward lower-cost alternatives. While price pressures have moderated in some global commodity markets, analysts say domestic retail prices typically lag behind wholesale declines, keeping the impact on consumers limited in the near term.
The Canada’s Food Price Report remains the country’s most comprehensive annual analysis of food cost trends, offering a detailed look at the economic, environmental, and structural factors influencing retail food prices. Its 2026 edition underscores that, despite some easing of global inflation, the cost of feeding Canadian households is expected to reach its highest level on record next year. – By Content Syndication Services.